| 作者 |
 [功夫原创]中国房地产投资实际回报率的计算方法和中国房产升值预测 |
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please show me how to leverage 2:1 and invest in Dow and -- 功夫王 - (872 Byte) 2006-11-14 周二, 11:24 (412 reads) |
vagabond
头衔: 海归少尉
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加入时间: 2005/01/26
文章: 13
海归分: 2775
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作者：vagabond 在 海归酒吧 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
iit is not riskless like most investment. S&P returns about 9% since 1926, so you average about 18% (ignore the 5% interest you will earn in the collateral and current 2% divident yield of S&P).. Return is very much a matter of leverage. To achieve leverage, you will incur financing costs: margin rate for stocks (>6%), mortgage rate for real estate market (~6%) and zero rate for futures.
Now, what about the risk? You will go bust if the market go down more than 50% like what happened in 1929. Real estate can go down more than 50% too. If it can happen in New York, Tokyo and HongKong, it can probably happen in Beijing too. If you are dependent on rent as mortgage payment and the rent goes down as much as the house price, you will go bust too. Which one is more likely: the stock goes down 50% or Beijing real estate goes down 50%? I don't know.
I have to agree with you that most people make morer money from their house than from the stock market. It is not accidental. But the reason is another topic and it doesn't imply that housing market in China is a better investment than the stock market at the moment. You are also right that 90% of mutual fund managers can't beat the index fund after cost; but it doesn't mean that it is very hard to find some good managers with proven skills to beat the market in the long run like Buffet.
Could you enlighten us a bit on what we should do and not do when hunting an apartment in Beijing? That would be very very helpful.
No risk, no glory!
作者：vagabond 在 海归酒吧 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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