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 [原创]全球房事都开始消停了，中国房事还会高歌猛进，一枝独秀吗？（全文版） |
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[原创]全球房事都开始消停了，中国房事还会高歌猛进，一枝独秀吗？（全文版） -- 学子 - (18176 Byte) 2006-12-02 周六, 12:52 (2627 reads) |
sapientaf
头衔: 海归上校
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加入时间: 2006/08/20
文章: 821
来自: 弯曲，上海，班格罗尔，北京，新加坡
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作者：sapientaf 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Thank you for the earlier edition and this final version.
It is hard to predict the future. But by looking in the past, it might help to find similiar scenarios in the past 30 years around the world which mimic the current conditon somewhat in China.
Switzerland in the 80s
Japan, specifically Tokyo in the late 80s, early 90s
HK from 1997 up to now
Beijing from now to 2009/2010
This time around, the China boom has a bigger portion of speculative elements such as hot money, plus boxed in State banks with large home loan exposure and the soaring RMB
All we can pray is this time, things will not end up as badly as HK after 97
Long term, things will normally fall back to parity. The gravity of the economic cycle is too powerful to overcome.
Now it is end of 2006...say hi to inflation and close to the end of the party.
作者：sapientaf 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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