在本周德意志的US Outlook Report里，阐述了DB对于目前US Outlook的几点看法。其中用于支持其稍乐观于Street的论点中有两点，个人觉得有待商榷。
原文如下：
Some analysts argue that the dislocation in the financial services sector is so large that the monetary transmission mechanism is broken, but keep in mind that as the Fed continues to cut rates, two significant events occur: One, mortgage resets become less onerous for borrowers, as many of the adjustable rate subprime mortgages that are coming due are tied to short-end rates. This should result in fewer forced foreclosures, which at the margin will put less downward pressure on home prices. Two, the Treasury yield curve should steepen. This is important because it will help banks restore their profitability and hence their capital base.
与以往的多次衰退不同，此次的经济下行中，Credit更多地走在的是Cause处rather than Result处。也就是说，此次的Credit Blow Out更多的是此番经济下行的原因之一而不是经济衰退后带来的结果。因此，突出的表现在即便收益曲线趋陡，长、短期的收益均下跌（Though with different pace），Risk Free Rate下跌，但Risk Premium却没有丝毫改善，相反却大幅度的Widening了。也就是说，总体的Credit环境并没有因降息得到改善，相反可能还更加恶化了，这反过来也证明了此次经济下行中，Credit是处于Cause处，而非出于Result处。因此在这样的环境下，Risk spread并未随着Fed的降息而得到改善，银行业在自身资本金不充足+Risk Spread Wider的条件下愈加Tighten Credit Standard and demanding more yield on the loans（As u can tell from the latest Fed Loan Officer Report）使得Corporate的借贷成本更加恶化，难以享受到Accommodative rate为其带来的好处。
