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 ２新闻，１是当地ZF SHOP RATING ２是当地ZF坏帐可能２３％ |
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emperorfan
[博客]
年龄: 49
加入时间: 2010/02/05
文章: 2008
海归分: 814623
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作者：emperorfan 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
China banks face 'serious' default risk: report
(AFP) – 18 hours ago
SHANGHAI — Nearly a quarter of the 7.66 trillion yuan (1.1 trillion dollars) that Chinese banks lent to local governments is "at serious risk of default", a report said.
Chinese banks lent huge amounts of money to provincial financing vehicles for construction projects after Beijing called for nationwide efforts to spur the economy.
But now only 27 percent of projects financed by the loans are generating adequate cash flow for repayment, the Century Weekly said in its latest issue, citing the China Banking Regulatory Commission.
And 23 percent of the loans -- or about 1.76 trillion yuan -- face serious default risks, said the report.
The banking regulators, along with the banks that have the biggest exposure, will carry out detailed discussions with local governments starting in September about how to recoup the loans, the report said.
A spokeswoman at the banking regulator, which was also cited in a report on the issue by the Financial Times newspaper, declined to comment on the report when contacted by AFP.
China has powered out of the global crisis on the back of a stimulus package worth four trillion yuan and the state-backed bank lending, which saw new loans nearly double from the previous year to 9.6 trillion yuan in 2009.
The lending spree raised concerns in Beijing over a possible new crop of bad loans that could threaten the world's third-largest economy.
The State Council, or cabinet, warned earlier this year about the risks of lending to financing vehicles set up by local authorities to fund new roads, bridges and other projects.
Lending to such entities represented about 18 to 20 percent of total loans in the banking system, rating agency Standard & Poor's said last week.
"It's highly likely that some of these loans will turn bad over the next few years, given the questionable credit quality of many of the borrowers," said Liao Qiang, a Beijing-ba<x>sed analyst at Standard & Poor's.
The roughly 1.76 trillion yuan at risk of default would be nearly four times the amount of all non-performing loans in Chinese banks as of the end of June, according to figures released by the bank regulator.
Ratings Understate `Dangerous' Chinese Local Government Risks, Dagong Says
By Bloomberg News - Jul 27, 2010 Credit ratings assigned to yuan- denominated bonds issued on behalf of local governments in China are misleading and don’t reflect risks investors face, Dagong Global Credit Rating Co.’s chairman said.
Local government-backed borrowers shop around for the best rankings from Chinese ratings companies and “whoever gives them a better rating gets the business,” Guan Jianzhong, chairman of privately owned Dagong, one of China’s five official ratings agencies, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Beijing yesterday. “This is very dangerous.”
Guan’s comments show growing concern at credit risks stemming from a record borrowing binge spurred by China’s efforts to revive economic growth during the global recession. Chinese banks may struggle to recoup about 23 percent of the 7.7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) lent to finance local infrastructure projects, according to a person with knowledge of data collected by the China Banking Regulatory Commission.
“It reflects the lack of transparency in local-government finance,” Tom Orlik, a Beijing-ba<x>sed China economist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, said in a telephone interview. “It’s very difficult to get an accurate gauge of the repayment capacity either of the local government financing vehicles or of the local governments themselves.”
Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings drew criticism in the U.S. from investors and officials including Financial Crisis Inquiry Chairman Phil Angelides for assigning top rankings to mortgage-linked securities that crashed when the U.S. housing market collapsed in 2007.
No Junk
“In China most companies can’t issue junk bonds, they have to be at least AA to apply for debt issuance,” Guan said. Local governments set up financing vehicles to fund projects such as highways and airports with bonds and loans, due to limits on their ability to directly borrow money.
According to China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., 43 urban construction companies affiliated with municipalities, provincial and prefecture-level cities, as well as counties, issued bonds totaling 59.2 billion yuan ($8.7 billion) in the first half of 2010. Of the 72 corporate bonds sold in the first half, 70 were rated AA or above, Lianhe said.
China has more than 1,000 county-level governments and hundreds of city and municipal councils that get revenue from local taxes, land sales and central-government transfers. Premier Wen Jiabao’s crackdown to prevent a real-estate bubble has left cities such as Tianjin, southeast of Beijing, reeling as revenues slump from land sales, which made up 41 percent of income in 2009.
Danger Signals
“If you look at the financial crisis, it was caused by an accumulation of credit risks,” said Guan. “When it gets to a certain point, then a crisis breaks out.”
China this year restricted borrowing on concern money isn’t being used for viable projects. While Dagong expects defaults on bank loans used to fund infrastructure construction, there won’t be a risk to the banking system as regulation has improved, he said.
Financing vehicles l<x>inked to local governments issue bonds in China’s exchange-traded and interbank markets. These notes are bought by asset managers, securities firms and other institutional investors. Commercial banks are restricted to buying in the interbank market.
Beijing-ba<x>sed Dagong gave China’s government a higher debt rating than the U.S., U.K. or Japan in a report covering 50 nations it published this month.
Two other big ratings companies in China are tie-ups with international partners. China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co. is a joint venture with Moody’s Corp., and China Lianhe Credit Rating is a joint venture partner with Fitch Ratings Ltd. Foreign ratings firms aren’t allowed to directly rate Chinese domestic currency bonds.
Dagong has applied to the Securities and Exchange Commission to start ratings coverage in the U.S. The firm expects a final SEC decision in September.
作者：emperorfan 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 ２新闻，１是当地ZF SHOP RATING ２是当地ZF坏帐可能２３％ -- emperorfan - (6631 Byte) 2010-7-28 周三, 06:55 (1246 reads) - 中国字的 -- over123 - (839 Byte) 2010-7-28 周三, 10:07 (310 reads)
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