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zt] Global Finance: 新兴市场，中国，印度，美国（一） -- hwarrensen - (8089 Byte) 2006-1-18 周三, 12:10 (2171 reads) |
hwarrensen
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作者：hwarrensen 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Feeding Frenzy
https://www.gfmag.com/2006/Jan/c_ci/cs_art07.php?PHPSESSID=cc9e42dfd7a923ebde8c1739e80352ec
Global Finance Jan 2006
India is emerging from under China抯 shadow as a prime destination for inward investment.
With economic growth rates accelerating and corporate profits at all-time highs, India is beginning to attract an unprecedented level of attention. In 2005 India’s stock markets were among the best performing in the world. The country also saw record foreign portfolio investments, which easily topped 2004’s already impressive $8.5 billion. By early December, more than $9 billion had flooded into the country, and investment was pouring in at the rate of nearly $1 billion a month.
Remarkably, almost half of all the money invested by foreign investors since the Indian capital market was opened to them in 1993 has arrived in the past 18 months. Indian equity indexes tend to correlate closely with foreign institutional inflows, which partly explains why the stock market, too, is at a record level. “Most foreign investors remain extremely positive on India, and more dedicated India funds are being raised overseas, and larger portions of existing funds are being diverted to India,” says Shishir Asthana, head of research at MTG Research & Analytics, an investment advisory firm.
Investors are attracted by India’s burgeoning economy, which recently posted growth rates over 8%. Crucially, industrial growth is beginning to match the growth rate in India’s formidable services sector, which accounts for 50% of GDP. Industrial growth came in at 9.8% for the July-September quarter against a little over 10% for services.
The impressive growth rates have been fueled partly by a government-led drive to increase Indians’ purchasing power. Lending rates in India have been more than halved since 2003, and tax harmonization has slashed consumption tax, triggering a dramatic rise in domestic demand. Consultant McKinsey & Co. estimates that consumption tax as a proportion of cost of goods should fall to 15%-20% by 2007 from its current level of 30%-60%, which will almost certainly spur further growth.
India’s software and services sectors have long been the focus of investor attention, but it is another sector—pharmaceuticals—that is beginning to attract increasing foreign interest. India has the fourth-largest pharmaceutical sector in the world and is recognized for its strong R&D and process and product development skills. Despite a new WTO-compliant patent regime that took force in April 2005, Indian companies are set for continued robust growth.
While some companies are focused on using their strong balance sheets and strong R&D skills to develop new molecules on their own, others are working with multinational pharmaceutical firms in co-developing molecules or doing clinical research for them. In both cases Indian companies are making rapid strides. But the real growth potential is being seen in clinical research—a critical post-discovery function where the drug has to be tested for efficacy and toxicity. Indian companies have proven themselves very capable in conducting clinical research and managing the complexities that arise. In addition, clinical research involves a strong blend of information technology skills, and India possesses that in abundance.
But the opportunities in clinical research go beyond being simply that of outsourcing, says Apurva Shah, CEO, Veeda Clinical Research, a leading clinical research company. “There is a great opportunity for companies in clinical research to partner with pharmaceutical companies in the drug development process rather than simply operate as a low-cost option,” he comments. This argument holds true even in the pre-drug-discovery stage, where companies try to uncover the next blockbuster molecule. India has a reputation for possessing strong chemistry and molecular synthesis skills, incubated by years of investment in research by India’s drug companies and in Indian universities and government laboratories. That investment has paid off in other, more tangible ways, too: Indian pharmaceutical companies export nearly $5 billion worth of drugs annually, mostly to the US and Europe and also to less well-regulated markets in Asia and Africa.
With the pharmaceuticals industry well established as one of India’s greatest knowledge-based manufacturing industries, the government is now pushing for other manufacturing industries to catch up. To enable that, the country is pouring investment into infrastructure. Already, $13 billion worth of road projects have begun, with significant stretches completed. Between $10 billion and $15 billion a year is being invested in the power sector in order to meet the government’s objective of zero power deficits by 2012 from the 8% gap currently.
The demand arising from spending on infrastructure is pushing investment into steel, aluminum, copper and zinc, making India one of the hottest destinations for investments in the metals sector. Global steel giants Mittal Steel and POSCO of South Korea have earmarked a combined investment of $21 billion in integrated steel plants in India. Indian metals groups are not far behind: Tata Steel, JSW Steel and Vedanta Resources are spending close to $20 billion to increase their production capacity.
Demand for other commodities, including cement, is rising significantly, thanks to a corresponding boom in housing construction driven by a combination of falling mortgage rates, the availability of high-quality housing and a lowering of the required loan-to-income ratio.
India’s real estate sector is also surfing the new wave of prosperity. For example, driven by the growth in domestic consumption, shopping malls are appearing across the country. According to KSA Technopak, a leading retail consultancy firm in India, 39 malls were operational in India in 2005. In 2006, 54 more are expected to open.
But investment in commercial projects such as malls is only one part of an unfolding story. The government has recently allowed 100% foreign direct investment in integrated townships, which are being created in response to the growing demand for high-quality housing. This kind of development has caught the eye of foreign investors, particularly in the US, where a large number of real estate funds and investment pools focused on the real estate market in India have launched.
Another sector that is experiencing meteoric growth is automobile component manufacturing. A large number of Indian automobile companies are now preferred equipment suppliers to a number of global auto manufacturers and have been recording double-digit growth rates. The domestic automobile sector, too, is enjoying a scorching pace of growth in India, driven by the rapid rise in incomes and improvement in lifestyles. India is the fourth-largest market for automobiles in Asia and the largest in the world for motorcycles.
As more foreign companies realize that India is more than just a destination for IT outsourcing, the prospects for the next year look exceptionally good.
； Thomas Clouse
作者：hwarrensen 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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