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hwarrensen
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作者：hwarrensen 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Intel Might Be Boring, But It's A Buy
https://www.forbes.com/2005/10/27/intel-microsoft-apple-in_mm_1027soapbox_inl.html?partner=technology_newsletter
Mark Mowrey, Prudent Speculator TechValue Report , 10.28.05, 6:00 AM ET
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Folks who want to be cool, but who can’t be cool enough to buy Apple Computer, purchase white-box (not brand-name) machines running Linux operating systems using core processors from Advanced Micro Devices. The rest of us have work to do, so we can’t buy Apple. And since we find such systems mostly infallible, we pick machines from Hewlett-Packard running Windows operating systems from Microsoft on chips from Intel.
That’s the gist of the snarky conversation we had before picking this month’s addition to Mowrey Portfolio Compiler. It’s over the top and, for the most part, not exactly what we think of current industry dynamics, but the banter reinforces some key parts of our reasoning for choosing Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people ). While we applaud the ascent of Advanced Micro Devices (nyse: AMD - news - people ) to technology leader and recognize the tremendous pressure the "cheap computing" trend has placed on folks like Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HPQ - news - people ) and Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ), we think there are more than enough reasons to believe that a majority of folks will continue to choose the "Wintel" platform from major PC makers, and that Intel will continue to dominate microprocessor chip sales for years to come, with particular success in mobile computing.
Intel finally released its first "dual-core" chips destined for servers on Oct. 10, five months after AMD did the same. By using two cores, chip designers are seeking to further Moore’s Law while holding power consumption in check.
According to research firm IDC, AMD’s share of x86-based servers (meaning those that use these industry-standard chip sets) rose to 7.6% in the second quarter of this year, up from 5.6% in the first quarter. It wouldn’t surprise us if that figure rose again in the latest quarter. Investors have looked at these and other gains at AMD and tend to believe that the end of Intel’s reign is near.
Not so likely, we think, as Intel has at least a few advantages AMD just won’t be able to replicate. Currently, Intel’s partner Dell (nasdaq: DELL - news - people ), which just happens to be the largest computer manufacturer in the world, does not use AMD chips. Speculation that that position would change pushed AMD shares higher earlier in the year, while adding weight to Intel’s. Now that it looks like Intel may be stepping up its game in terms of innovation, the pressure on Dell to add an AMD-based line should ease.
Intel also targets a much more diverse list of end-markets, adding breadth at a time when major advances in technology and market development are occurring in many areas outside the computer. Intel has, in fact, been focusing on this greater breadth as a means to support long-term growth. Back in January of this year, Intel announced that it was realigning its organization to pursue a "platform-based" strategy. Instead of just selling chips, Intel would focus on several growth areas for the development of processors, supporting chip sets, software and other tools that would help buyers create more useful products. These areas included digital enterprise, mobility and digital home.
Driving this redesign was the success of Intel’s Centrino mobile platform, introduced in 2003, that combined low-power core processing with graphics and wireless connectivity capabilities. Intel dominates the mobile platform, with few thinking AMD will catch up any time soon.
We believe Intel’s smart marketing efforts for Centrino have contributed in great ways to the broad-based development of wireless technologies. The company’s focus on next-generation WiMax technologies, which promise far greater speeds and longer range, should create a similar market foundation for WiMax chips and greater profit for Intel. Of note, Intel’s mobility group posted double-digit second-quarter gains in the sale of application processors intended for mobile phones and consumer electronics, and accounted for a third of first-half 2005 revenue, up from less than a quarter in the first half of 2004.
We’d certainly like to see Intel get back its title as the clear leader of innovation in microprocessors. But the fact that the company has lost that cachet is a core reason the stock is trading at five-year valuation lows. Intel shares change hands at just over 16 times 2005 earnings, according to Reuters Estimates, as cheap as Intel has been since 2001. Couple the low multiples with the low debt, cash-rich balance sheet and the stock’s current 1.4% yield, and we couldn’t help but jump at the chance to purchase Intel before the herd changes its course.
Excerpted from the October issue of the Prudent Speculator TechValue Report. Click here for more analysis and ideas from Mark Mowrey and John Buckingham.
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作者：hwarrensen 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [zt] Forbes Newsletter: Intel Might Be Boring, But It's A Buy -- hwarrensen - (5613 Byte) 2005-11-03 周四, 04:57 (1281 reads)
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