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 [转帖]5 Dividend Stocks to Hold Forever |
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江志
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加入时间: 2005/06/24
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作者：江志 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
如果流年不利，买啥亏啥，干脆坐在个牛车上吃利息得了，还好不是动车。 
I looked at five stocks and assessed their ability to continue their policy of dividend payments. In an economy where interest rates may remain low for some time, investors seeking income may wish to hold such stocks forever:
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ): A giant in the world of healthcare, Johnson and Johnson operates in three segments: consumer, pharmaceutical, and medical devices and diagnostics. Founded in 1886, the Brunswick, New Jersey ba<x>sed company has a market capitalization of $182.34 billion, and is expected to show revenues of $65.07 billion this year, and $68.49 billion in 2012. Shares are currently trading at $66.72, toward the upper end of their 52-week range of $56.99 to $68.05. With earnings per share estimated to rise from last year’s $4.41 to this year’s estimated $4.95 to $5.26 in 2012, analysts estimates of an average 12 month target for the share price of $71.82 seem conservative. Johnson and Johnson’s dividend of $2.28 for the last financial year produces a dividend yield of 3.40%, with a coverage ratio of 1.93. Its long term history of dividend growth, which has seen annual dividends rise from $0.1638 in 1990, seems set to continue from this giant in a sector that is also likely to see continued growth.
McDonald’s Corporation (MCD): McDonald’s has increased its dividend each year since paying its first cash dividend in 1976, and started paying quarterly dividends in 2008 due to the substantial increase in the value of its dividends over the last few years. It recently declared a dividend for the latest quarter $0.61 per share, making a total of $2.44 on a dividend yield of 2.80%. The coverage ratio is similar to that of Johnson and Johnson at 1.94. The shares trade at $88.56 on the day of writing, with a 52-week range of $68.59 to $89.57, and a current market capitalization of $90.05 billion. Analysts expect earnings per share to rise from this year’s $4.73 to $5.12 next year, and revenue to move ahead to $27.84 billion from $26.36billion. Since its founding in 1948, MacDonald’s has increased its size and scope to be one of today’s major world brands. It operates in 117 countries, and franchises out 26,216 of its 32,478 restaurants. With such a global brand, and customer loyalty built from an early age, we expect dividend growth to continue unabated in the future. MCD should be able to stay ahead of competition from Wendy's (WEN) and Yum! Brands (YUM).
Pepsico (PEP): A company best known for the natural rival to Coca-Cola (KO), Pepsico is a manufacturer and seller of foods, snacks, and beverages around the world. In addition to Pepsi, it operates other leading brand names such as Lay’s, Doritos, Quaker, Gatorade, and Mountain Dew. It has increased its dividend for 39 straight quarters, and has a market capitalization of $102.87 billion at its current share price of $65.08, a little below the mid of its 52-week range of $62.05 to $71.89. Its current annual dividend of $2.06 is paid from its earnings of $3.74 per share. Yielding 3.00%, with a coverage ratio of 1.82, dividend growth, which has seen the dividend more than triple in the last ten years, is likely to carry through the next few years as analysts expect earnings to rise strongly through the next two years to $4.91 per share. Though reporting this week that earnings this year are likely to come in weaker than expected, and seeing a downward movement in share price in reaction to this news, the stock now trades at a forward PE of 13.9, which is in line with the broader market. Founded in 1898, Pepsico has weathered earnings storms before and I think it will maintain its ethos of increasing value to shareholders through increasing dividends in the future. Pepsi should be able to maintain its market advantages relative to Coca-Cola for a long time to come.
Alcoa Inc. (AA): Alcoa Inc. was formed in 1888 and has its ba<x>se in New York. The company produces aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina, with interests around the world, and the alumina segment engages in the mining of bauxite, which is then refined into alumina. It serves industries from aircraft to automobiles, transportation to defense and industrial applications. In the last couple of years it has faced earnings problems, and slashed its dividend from $0.17 per share to just $0.03 per share in 2009. At the same time it turned to shareholders for cash. Consequently, at $15.66 on the day of writing, the shares trade on a historical price earnings ratio of 17.87 and give a market capitalization of $16.66 billion. This share price, toward the upper end of its 52-week trading range of $9.92 to $18.47, may be indicative of a return to favor among investors. The dividend yield is a lowly 0.80%, and on the face of it seems inconsequential. However, with current dividend coverage of 7.87, and analysts’ expectations for EPS to rise over the next 2 years to $1.44, there is plenty of room for the company to revert to stronger dividends in the future.
Altria Group Inc. (MO): Altria Group Inc. (formerly Philip Morris), was formed in 1919 and is a manufacturer and seller of tobacco, cigarettes, smokeless products , and wine, internationally. Its cigarette brands include the giants Marlboro, Benson and Hedges, and L&M. It also produces and sells blended table wines, and distributes Antinori and Villa Maria Estate wines, and Champagen Nicholas Feuillatte in the USA. On top of these main activities, the company maintains a portfolio of leveraged and direct finance leases in rail and surface transport, aircraft, electric power, real estate and manufacturing. The company is known as a cigarette manufacturer, and for this reason some more ethical investors would give it a wide berth. It may also be for this reason that it has one of the most generous dividends available. At 5.7%, the return is way above the return on cash held in a deposit account. It has tremendous cash flow, and though the dividend cover is only 1.27, with revenues expected to grow to $17.53bn next year (up from an estimated $17.13 in the current fiscal year), and EPS estimates centering around $2.18 for the same period, Altria Group has plenty of room to maintain its dividend. It is also increasing it exposure to other areas, and has a 27% stake in SABMiller (SBMRY.PK, SBMRF.PK), one of the world’s largest brewers and from which it receives a dividend of approximately $300mn (2010). With a forward price earnings ratio of just 11.98, the dividend yield should be maintained, whilst the absolute dividend should continue to grow.
=====Analysis: After the debt deal: 5 money moves to make now
=========
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A student graduating from Harvard's Business School holds a U.S. flag with a dollar bill tied to it during the 357th Commencement Exercises at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts June 5, 2008. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
On Tuesday August 2, 2011, 12:39 pm EDT
By Linda Stern
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Now what? If you're confused by the debt deal and what it means for your own wallet, you're not alone.
The fine print in the deal raises more questions than it answers. Almost all discretionary federal spending will face some cuts over the next 10 years, with defense spending taking a comparatively heavy hit. The bill calls for $917 billion in initial cuts over 10 years, with roughly $350 billion of that in defense and security spending.
Perhaps more significantly, the deal sets up a bipartisan 12-member congressional committee to find another $1.5 trillion in cuts. That group's menu is wide open and could include Social Security reductions or tax increases. If that committee fails to come up with at least $1.2 trillion in savings - or Congress doesn't approve its recommendations by December 23 - automated cuts begin to get triggered. Those cuts would be deep, hitting Medicare and the military but sparing Social Security, Medicaid and a handful of other programs.
So, everything's been decided and nothing's been resolved. That doesn't mean that individual savers and investors shouldn't continue to try and protect themselves from the fallout. Here are some moves to make or avoid now.
* Play defense on defense stocks, and all government contractors. "Stock investors who have companies that depend on government financing should monitor their holdings carefully," said Charles Rotblut of the American Association of Individual Investors. Defense contractors are likely to lose business as these cuts work their way through the system, but so will other government contractors, and state contractors too, as already recession-pinched states will lose some federal funding.
"Infrastructure is at particular risk, because it's going to be a lot harder for states to work on bridges, roads and highways," Rotblut said.
He suggested that investors dig into the 10K annual reports of companies to see how dependent they are on government work.
* Relax a little about your bonds. "Bonds are not as scary as before," said Don Martin of Mayflower Capital in Los Altos, California. Conventional wisdom still holds that long-term bonds will take a hit as interest rates rise, but this debt deal may defer that day for a number of reasons. With Congress making good on U.S. obligations, that diminishes the possibility of a ratings downgrade pushing Treasury rates up. And the bill's budget cuts, which mainly don't go into effect until 2013 at the earliest, could crimp economic growth, delaying the rise of interest rates.
"The economy has hit stall speed and is beginning to slip back into a recession, so with the reduction of government stimulus caused by austerity this means that stocks will go down and bonds will go up," said Martin. Investors still may want to move their bond holdings to a less-concentrated, shorter-term or more cautious approach, but there's less need to panic about them.
* Put your student loans on autopilot. The debt bill will eliminate the rebate that education borrowers get when they make a year's worth of loan payments on time. But they still may be able to get an interest-rate discount if they arrange to make their payments automatically through a bank account debit - that's worth doing.
Many graduate students will have to pay more for loans, as this deal eliminates the federal subsidies that paid interest costs on some of their loans while they were in school. Grad students may find it worthwhile to pay the interest themselves while they are in school, if they can, to avoid those costs compounding until after they graduate.
* Defer your Social Security benefits. That's been bedrock retirement advice for a while, but that new bipartisan congressional committee could make it more true than before. Here's why: Every year that you defer starting your Social Security retirement benefits, they rise by almost 8 percent. But there's a lot of talk about tinkering with the cost-of -living adjustments that apply to benefits once they've started flowing, and the bipartisan committee may do that in their next round of cuts.
If Congress shifts to a different inflation measure that moves up less quickly than the currently-used Consumer Price Index, it would limit upward adjustments on benefits. Starting benefits early means you relinquish that 8 percent a year increase and, should the COLA be nipped, start giving up buying power sooner. "That would be a significant problem for clients who rely on Social Security," said Mark Berg, of Timothy Financial Counsel, a fee-only financial planning firm. "We would encourage a wait approach on Social Security if the client can afford it."
* Expect more tumult, so, as always, save more. "If we have learned anything from this crisis, it's not to depend on the government for anything," said Bedda D'Angelo, president of Fiduciary Solutions, a Durham, North Carolina, financial -planning firm. "Entitlements change with the wind. Since pensions are being phased out too, the only sane thing to do is max out your tax-deferred retirement savings accounts."
Advisers have been telling their clients to get defensive for some time: Investors who pay down their debts, move more of their bond money to shorter-term instruments and their stock money to defensive dividend-earning stocks will be better prepared for whatever the government throws at them next, suggested money manager Daniel Romero, of Romery & Levin Wealth Management in Santa Ana, California.
"This is the fourth or fifth Armageddon situation that's come across our desk in recent years," commented Romero, who's had his clients building reserves, paying down debts and diversifying broadly into commodities, Japanese stocks, natural resources stocks and more. "Just put yourself in a situation where it won't affect you so much." At least until the next crisis.
(Editing by Beth Gladstone)
作者：江志 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [转帖]5 Dividend Stocks to Hold Forever -- 江志 - (13125 Byte) 2011-8-03 周三, 02:20 (1245 reads)
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